Cold Reading or how could someone know so much about me without ever meeting me?
Guide to Cold Reading
There are many people who promote themselves as psychics or clairvoyants, and who claim that their powers enable them to read your character, make contact with dead relatives, or provide insights into your life and your future.
Despite their claims, there has never been a successful demonstration of these powers in a laboratory, under properly controlled conditions. Indeed, the National Committee of Australian Skeptics offers a cash prize of $100,000 for any PROVEN demonstration of such powers. See The Challenge.
By far the most common method employed by psychics who have been put to the test is called cold reading. This method involves the psychic reading the subject’s body language etc, and skillfully extracting information from the subject, which can then be fed back later, convincing the subject that the psychic has told them things they couldn’t possibly have known!
The following is our 13 point guide to cold reading – Study them well, then amaze your friends with your new found psychic powers!
1. Remember that the key ingredient of a successful character reading is confidence.
If you look and act as if you believe in what you are doing, you will be able to sell even a bad reading to most subjects. One danger of playing the role of reader is that you may actually begin to believe that you really are divining your subject’s true character!
2. Make creative use of the latest statistical abstracts, polls and surveys.
These can provide you with much information about what various subclasses in our society believe, do, want ,worry about etc. For example, if you can ascertain a subject’s place of origin, educational level, and his/her parents’ religion and vocations, you have gained information which should allow you to predict with high probability his/her voting preferences and attitudes to many subjects.
3. Set the stage for your reading.
Profess a modesty about your talents. Make no excessive claims. You will then catch your subject off guard. You are not challenging them to a battle of wits – You can read his/her character, whether he/she believes you or not.
4. Gain the subject’s cooperation in advance.
Emphasize that the success of the reading depends as much on the subject’s cooperation as on your efforts. (After all, you imply, you already have a successful career at character reading – You are not on trial, your subject is!)State that due to difficulties of language and communication, you may not always convey the meaning you intend.In these cases, the subject must strive to fit the reading to his/her own life. You accomplish two valuable ends with this dodge – Firstly, you have an alibi in case the reading doesn’t click; it’s the subject’s fault, not yours! Secondly, your subject will strive to fit your generalities to his/her specific life circumstances. Later, when the subject recalls the reading, you will be credited with much more detail than you actually provided! This is crucial. Your reading will only succeed to the degree that the subject is made an active participant in the reading. The good reader is the one who ,
deliberately or unwittingly, forces the subject to search his/her mind to make sense of your statements.
5. Use a gimmick, such as Tarot cards, crystal ball, palm reading etc.
Use of props serves two valuable purposes. Firstly, it lends atmosphere to the reading. Secondly, (and more importantly) it gives you time to formulate your next question/statement. Instead of just sitting there, thinking of something to say, you can be intently studying the cards/crystal ball etc. You may opt to hold hands with your subject – This will help you feel the subject’s reactions to your statements. If you are using , say, palmistry (the reading of hands) it will help if you have studied some manuals, and have learned the terminology. This will allow you to more quickly zero in on your subject’s chief concerns – “do you wish to concentrate on the heart line or the wealth line?”
6. Have a list of stock phrases at the tip of your tongue.
Even during a cold reading, a liberal sprinkling of stock phrases will add body to the reading and will help you fill in time while you formulate more precise characterizations. Use them to start your readings. Palmistry, tarot and other fortune telling manuals are a key source of good phrases.
7. Keep your eyes open!
Use your other senses as well. Size the subject up by observing his/her clothes, jollier, mannerisms and speech. Even a crude classification based on these can provide the basis for a good reading. Also, watch carefully for your subject’s response to your statements – You will soon learn when you are hitting the mark!
8. Use the technique of fishing.
This is simply a device to get the subject to tell you about his/herself. Then you rephrase what you have been told and feed it back to the subject. One way of fishing is to phrase each statement as question, then wait for the reply. If the reply or reaction is positive, then you turn the statement into a positive assertion. Often the subject will respond by answering the implied question and then some. Later, the subject will forget that he/she was the source of the information! By making your statements into questions, you also force the subject to search his/her memory to retrieve specific instances to fit your general statement.
9. Learn to be a good listener.
During the course of a reading your client will be bursting to talk about incidents that are brought up. The good reader allows the client to talk at will. On one occasion I observed a tea leaf reader. The client actually spent 75% of the time talking. Afterward when I questioned the client about the reading she vehemently insisted that she had not uttered a single word during the course of the reading. The client praised the reader for having astutely told her what in fact she herself had spoken.
Another value of listening is that most clients that seek the services of a reader actually want someone to listen to their problems. In addition, many clients have already made up their minds about what choices they are going to make. They merely want support to carry out their decision.
10. Dramatize your reading.
Give back what little information you do have or pick up a little bit at a time. Make it seem more than it is. Build word pictures around each divulgence. Don’t be afraid of hamming it up.
11. Always give the impression that you know more than you are saying.
The successful reader, like the family doctor, always acts as if he/she knows much more. Once you have persuaded the subject that you know one item of information that you couldn’t possibly have known (through normal channels) the subject will assume that you know all! At this point, the subject will open up and confide in you.
12. Don’t be afraid to flatter your subject at every opportunity.
An occasional subject will protest, but will still lap it up. In such cases, you can add, “You are always suspicious of those who flatter you. You just can’t believe that someone will say something good about you without an ulterior motive”.
13. Remember the Golden Rule – always tell the subject what he/she wants to hear!
Cold reading is a technique used by tarot card readers, psychics, palm readers, astrologers, and even con men to get people to believe that the cold reader knows all about them, even though they have never met. Unlike hot reading, cold reading uses no secretly obtained or other advance knowledge about the person being read. Cold reading relies on an inventory of vague statements about the person’s personality, tailored feedback, selective recall of correct impressions, and an assortment of other tricks. The most effective weapon is the stock spiel, a set of statements about the person that are vague enough to fit anyone yet deceptively seem specific.
Observation and feedback are important if a cold reader wants to perfect his art. Psychics observe people’s appearance closely. Clothing, jewelry, grooming, and body language all give clues to the cold reader (Saville & Dewey). Is his hair cut conservative? Does the fit of clothing suggest she has lost or perhaps gained weight? Are they wearing any identifiers like an insignia ring, class ring, fraternity ring, or a crucifix around their neck? Those are just a sample of what a cold reader looks for when sizing up a person.
Often a reader will throw out try-on statements (Roberts 1997). Try-ons are subtle statements designed to prompt a reaction. They can include remarks like “I’m getting the feeling that ” or “I want to say that ” etc. They are not direct questions but they can be effective in producing a response. Often the person does not even realize that he has answered these promptings. After a suitable delay the cold reader will then repeat what has just been learned to the amazement of his subject.
Cold readers also pay particular attention to body language for feedback. They look for an unconscious nod or a forward lean and many will use muscle reading. Muscle reading works when a reader feels tiny motor movement in the person’s hands to see if the reader is on the right track. This is especially convenient for palm readers. Others will have their participant hold one end of a scarf while the cold reader holds the other, feeling for any motion (Roberts 1997). The reader is using observations and feedback to hone in on the subject’s personality, worries, and desires so that the end results seems so tailored to the person that it appears impossible for the reading to be that specific without some kind of psychic power being involved.
A good reader is also a good listener. They allow the participant to talk as much as they like and then the cold reader feeds this information back to them in a different form. More often than not people will forget what it was that they themselves said and remember the information as coming from the psychic.
Most people that come to psychics have some sort of problem they want an answer to. The cold reader, being a student of human nature, already has the problem narrowed down to a few areas before they even meet the person. Psychics know that most problems fall into the categories health, wealth, and love. When someone who isn’t sure if she should have bought such an expensive car hears a cold reader says something like, “I feel you have been debating in your mind about a financial matter” she will say something like, “How did you know about my car? “Of course the cold reader didn’t but will reassure her that she made the right decision about the car because that is what she really came to hear. Often the psychic will lightly touch on the major areas and see which gets the most reaction. Other times they almost ask straight out what the problem is, for instance a palm reader will ask what area you would like them to concentrate on first, the heart line, health line, or money line. Remember that a good psychic is a good listener and some people just want someone to talk to about their problems and reassurance that things will be fine.
Another tool used by psychics is the multiple out (Hines 1988). When the cold reader tells you something vague enough it can be interpreted in a multitude of ways, any of which will be used as proof of the psychics accuracy. If they say that you have had a fight with someone close to you recently and one week ago you had a fight with your daughter then you might think that psychic was particularly good. But the remark would probably be considered accurate if the fight was two weeks ago, a month ago, with your son, your employer, your friend, or even difficulties with your dog! If you told them about your fight with your daughter the cold reader would certainly act as if that was what she meant.
Another attribute of a successful cold reader is they have the right attitude. Hyman (1989) recommends that the reader act confidently yet not challenging.
If you look and act as if you believe in what you are doing, you will be able to sell even a bad reading to most of your subjects…The laboratory studies support this rule. Many readings are accepted as accurate because the statements do fit most people. But even readings that would ordinarily be rejected as inaccurate will be accepted if the reader is viewed as a person with prestige or as someone who knows what he is doing…Profess a modesty about your talents. Make no excessive claims. This catches your subject off guard. You are not challenging her to a battle of wits. You can read her character; whether she cares to believe you or not is her concern.
A good cold reader also takes advantage of polls and studies. “For example, if you can ascertain a subject’s place of origin, educational level, and his/her parents’ religion and vocations, you have gained information which should allow you to predict with high probability his/her voting preferences and attitudes to many subjects.”(Hyman) While it is amazing how timeless some of the character reading statements Gypsies have passed down from generation to generation are, society does change and a good reader will incorporate this into her reading.”Today, for example, not all young girls think only of an early marriage; some may aspire to become corporate presidents or military test pilots.Gays, in increasing numbers, are coming out of the closet, and taking on their own identity.Black-Americans, Mexican-Americans, Asian-Americans, and a host of other hyphenated Americans have complex agendas, and far-reaching goals, much removed from the ethnic stereotypes widely accepted as reality a few years ago.”(Jones 1989)
Psychics can be divided into two categories: open eye and shut eye(Earle 1995).The open eye psychic is conscious of the psychological techniques being used during a reading.A shut eye psychic uses many of the same techniques but is not aware of it.The shut eye palm reader uses a vague statement like “you have been debating in your mind about a financial matter” not because she thinks it will apply to most people and that people will ascribe meaning to it, but because her palm reading manual says that is what that particular line on the hand means.Conscious or not, the statements works.The problem is that when both parties want to believe the psychic has this gift, there is a cycle of reinforcement.The subject is amazed at how accurate the psychic is and this in turn strengthens the psychic’s belief in his own power.Ray Hyman explains how this happened to him:
One danger of playing the role of reader is that you will persuade yourself that you are really divining true character.This happened to me.I started reading palms in my teens as a way to supplement my income from doing magic and mental shows.When I started I did not
believe in palmistry.But I knew that to” sell” it I had to act as if I did.After a few years I became a firm believer in palmistry. One day the late Dr. Stanley Jaks who was a professional mentalist and a man I respected, tactfully suggested that it would make and interesting experiment if I deliberately gave readings opposite to what the lines indicated.I tried this out with a few clients.To my surprise and horror my readings were just as successful as ever.Ever since then I have been interested in the powerful forces that convince us, reader and client alike, that something is so when it really isn’t.(Hyman 1989)
It is not surprising that people find more meaning in the psychic’s statements than is really there.It is human nature to attempt to find meaning in things.
It is these stock spiels consisting of vague statements that are the foundation of cold reading and the most important weapon in a reader’s arsenal.In fact, the effect of seeing general statements as being accurate of a specific person (a.k.a. the Barnum effect) can alone be a very effective reading, even if you shut out any form of feedback.Because of the importance of this phenomenon I shall delve deeper into what is known as the Barnum or Forer effect.
The Barnum effect describes how a general personality profile that fits everyone will be accepted as accurate when given to an individual, especially if it is tied to some individuating or credible source such as birth date or personality test results (Saville & Dewey).The personality profile consists of statements that are “vague, e.g., ‘you enjoy a certain amount of change and variety in life’; double headed, e.g., ‘you are generally cheerful and optimistic but get depressed at times’; modal characteristics of the subject’s group, e.g., ‘you find that studying is not always easy’; favorable, e.g., ‘you are forceful and well-liked by others’”(Dickson, Kelly 1985).As a result of these characteristics people tend to find these profiles very accurate.This issue is important for understanding why psychic readings work and judging the validity of psychological personality assessment measures.The main variables that make these character profiles seem accurate are their generality, relevance, and favorability.It seems that with few exceptions people will accept Barnum profiles regardless of the source.Almost all people feel these character sketches are accurate but there may be some personality factors of individuals that are related to increased acceptance.
Bertram Forer first studied the Barnum Effect formally in 1949 but the effect is ancient.Forer was studying what he called the fallacy of personal validation.To see if personal validation was accurate in determining the validity of a personality inventory, Forer developed a personality profile based on statements from a newsstand astrology book.Subjects were given a personality test to fill out and were told that results would be given as soon as there was time to examine them.But instead of giving them the real results Forer gave them identical copies of his generic personality profile and asked them to rate it’s accuracy.The subjects found it very accurate.On a scale from 0 to 5 their average accuracy rating was 4.3.Another study, where subjects were given the most accurate personality assessment test at the time, was conducted by giving the subjects both the actual results and a bogus Barnum profile(Hyman 1989).When asked to discern between the real and fake one, nearly 60% chose the Barnum profile as real.This clearly demonstrates that personal validation is not an appropriate way to determine personality assessment validity.Take a moment to read this profile and consider how accurately it describes you.
Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved.You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.You pride yourself as being an independent thinker and do not accept other’s opinions without satisfactory proof.You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside.Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you.While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you.(Hines 1988 p.38)
What is it about these profiles that makes people so ready to accept them as accurate?One of their powers is that they are general.Most of the statements are true of most people.It also helps if the profile is relevant to people.By that I mean the profile is supposedly based on something specific to the subject, a personality test or astrological sign.Most profiles are positive in nature and that favorablilty results in people accepting the compliment.
The Barnum effect got its name from P.T. Barnum’s idea that you should have a “little something for everyone.”One of the keys to the success of the effect is that most of the statements in a profile could apply to anyone even though the statements may appear to be specific or unique.The question of whether people realize that these statements are general arises.Research seem to indicate that people do not realize they are general unless prompted by being specifically asked about the generality of the statements (Dickson & Kelly).
Cold readers always recommend that you use a gimmick whether it be tarot cards, tea leaves, or palmistry.Why?What psychic performers have known for a long time and which we now have empirical evidence for is that when the personality profile given seems to be based on information specific to the subject it is more likely to be accepted.When two groups of people are given the same personality profile and one is told that it was designed for them based on personal information such as a personality test they took or the day, month, and year of their birth, that group will be significantly more likely to rate the profile as more accurate than a group that was told the profile is generally true for most people.When a palm reader personalizes what is actually a memorized stock spiel the subject sees the reading as more accurate and will be more likely to accept it since it appears to be based on something specific to them, the lines on their hand.
Does flattery play a role in personality profiles being accepted?The more favorable the assessment is the more likely it is to be seen as accurate by the subject(Dickson & Kelly).Throwing in a few negative statements make it seem more realistic, but in general more positive profiles are accepted more often (Hyman 1989).A negative profile will be more likely to be accepted if it comes from someone of high status but is not nearly as effective as a mostly positive profile (Dickson & Kelly). For a profile that is mostly positive with a few negative statements the subject will tend to consider the positive statement as unique descriptions of themselves while considering the negative comments as being more general in nature (Hyman).It is as if they think, “Few people are good the way I am, but my flaws tend to be ones that most other people have too.” It is interesting how favorable and unfavorable assessments affect whether people reject base rates.If a statement about themselves is positive they will tend to ignore the base rate of others having that same positive characteristic and feel they are uniquely good.If a base rate implies negative qualities people consider themselves uniquely immune.After watching the Milgram film (Milgram 1974) which show subjects who were ordered to give electrical shocks to a fellow participant, the percentage of people who feel they would obey similarly is nowhere near the base rate (Snyder 1978).
Does the status of the person giving the profile affect its perceived accuracy?It appears that status makes no difference, with one exception.Studies have been done (Ulrich 1963) where people of different status (professor, grad student, or fellow student) administered and supposedly evaluated a personality test and students rated profiles equally accurate.The exception is with negative feedback.People are more likely to except negative feedback if it comes from an expert or someone who is perceived with high status.
What kinds of people are particularly susceptible to the Barnum effect?It turns out that most people are susceptible and there is little immunity.Are people who accept profiles as accurate more gullible than most?Standing & Keays (1987) have shown that there is no correlation between gullibility and perceived accuracy of Barnum profiles.Several studies have been done to see if more sophisticated people accept Barnum statements more readily than naive people(Dickson & Kelly).The sophisticated groups were usually defined as psychology graduate students or upper level psychology students while the naive subjects were usually freshman and sophomore psychology students.The results are that sophisticated subjects are less likely to endorse Barnum profiles than arena naive subjects, although they are equally likely to find the profiles descriptive of others.Note that profiles are still rated well by sophisticated subjects, just not as well. Other studies have found that accuracy rating is not related to occupation or age (Dickson and Kelly). Greene et al. (1979) found that people are much better at discerning the difference between feedback from real results and bogus results on tests that measure intellectual characteristics rather than tests that measure personality characteristics.Another factor that has been considered is whether gender makes a difference in how accurate a Barnum profile is rated.No effect of gender has been found (Dickson & Kelly).A correlation has been found between the need for social approval and accuracy rating of character profiles (Orpen et al 1975).”It seems that an individual’s need for social approval is positively related to acceptance of favorably worded personality interpretations and inversely related to acceptance of unfavorably worded interpretations”(Dickson, Kelly 1985).
Other factors that might help explain the Barnum effect are self serving bias, selective recall, a need to feel unique, and an exceptionally accurate statement coloring the rest of the profile.It is easy to see how our self-serving bias (Gilovich 1991)(i.e. our tendency to see ourselves in the most positive light) can lead us to readily accept a positive description. It agrees with our existing positive opinion.Not only does it make us more likely to accept Barnum statements, but we may actually interpret ambiguous statements in a positive or flattering way.If we already believe the profile is going to be accurate, we may selectively recall (Gilovich 1991) the “hits” and forget the “misses”.The hits tend to be more salient since they fit our expectations.If feeling unique is some kind of human need, then ignoring base rates and believing ourselves to be special is consisted with that.The need to feel unique in part explains why we consider a profile more unique to us than it actually is.Another thing that could be working is that a statement that
seems particularly accurate could result in us putting more faith in the other statements and the profile in general.
The Barnum effect is a powerful way to get people to think you know all about them.People are so impressed with it they will choose it over the real thing.The important ingredients in making an effective profile are generality, relevance, and favorability.Just about anybody can give a profile and it will be accepted, but if you are going to give negative comments then it helps if you are held in high esteem.It doesn’t matter how old you are, what your gender is, or what your occupation is; you will likely feel the profile is a bull’s eye unless perhaps you’ve taken a myriad of psychology courses.It may be that our self-serving bias, our reverence for a particularly accurate statement, our need to feel unique, and our selective recall could be possible explanations as to why the Barnum effect works.
The Barnum effect in conjunction with keen observation, feedback, selective recall, and other insights into human nature allow the cold reader to create an impressive illusion of psychic ability.
©1998
References:
Dickson, D.H. & Kelly, I.W. (1985). The ‘Barnum Effect’ in personality Assessment: A review of the literature. Psychological Reports, 57, 367-382.
Hines, T. (1988) Pseudoscience and the Paranormal. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.
Gilovich, T.(1991) How Know What Isn’t So. New York, NY: The Free Press.
Snyder, C.R. (1978). The ‘illusion’ of uniqueness. Journal of Humanistic Psychology, 18, 33-41.
Forer, B.R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: a classroom demonstration of gullibility. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44, 118-123.
Hyman R. (1989) “Cold Reading”: How to Convince Strangers That You Know All About Them, The Elusive Quarry (pp. 402-419). Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books.
Saville and Dewey (19??) Red Hot Cold Readings. (Apparently self-published)
Orpen, C., & Jamotte, A. (1975). The acceptance of generalized personality interpretations. Journal of Social Psychology, 38, 147-148.
Greene, R. L., Harris, M.E., & Macon, R. S. (1979). Another look at personal validation. Journal of Personality Assessment, 43, 4.
Standing, L. & Keays G. (1987). Do the Barnum effect and paranormal belief involve a general gullibility factor? Psychological Reports, 61, 435-438.
Ulrich, R. E., Stachnik, R. J., & Stainton, M. T. (1963). Student acceptance of generalized personality interpretations.Psychological Reports, 13, 831-834.
Milgram, S. (1974) Obedience to Authority. New York: Harper & Row.
Jones, B. (1989) King of the Cold Readers. Bakersfield, CA.: Bascom Jones.
Robert, N. (1997) Cold Reading. The Connecticut Skeptic, 2, 3.
Earle, Lee (1995) The Classic Reading. United States: Binary Star Publications.
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Cold Reading
by Robert Novella
The Connecticut Skeptic Vol. 2 Issue 2 (Spring ‘97) pg 3
You have just left a psychic reading and you are amazed. The psychic knew many things about you that no one else knew and other things that couldn’t possibly have been figured out. The only explanation you can think of is that some kind of extrasensory perception was involved. What else could explain it?
If this has not happened to you then you probably know someone who has related a similar story. A perceptiveness beyond the normal human senses is not required to explain this phenomenon, however. Human psychology and a tried and true technique called cold reading could produce the same results, just as if your mind had been read and you future foretold.
Cold reading is a skill used by tarot card readers, psychics, palm readers, iridologists, astrologers, and even salesmen to gather information about a subject. The process begins with careful observation, supplemented by knowledge of statistics and the commonalties of human nature. From these starting points general statements are made, statements which are likely to be true about almost anybody. Visual and verbal feedback from the subject is then used to pursue accurate statements and abandon dead ends, all the time honing the initial guesses to more and more accurate conclusions. In the hands of an expert, the technique can be frighteningly successful, almost uncanny.
Cold reading is not one simple trick but a number of different methods for gleaning surprisingly accurate information about someone’s personality characteristics and problems, all with ostensibly little effort. By definition this information is gathered on the spot by conversation, keen observation and a good memory. In contrast, the term ‘hot reading’ has been applied to information gathering that precedes visual and physical contact, usually through special databases, directories and other resources. Cold readers, though, do not need to rely on such sources. All that is needed is interaction with the subject. Before any interaction, though, most accomplished cold readers have as an information foundation, knowledge of probability and the common denominators of the human condition.
Probability and statistics enter the picture in ways as simple as knowing that most male names in our culture begin with the letter “J,” while most female names begin with “M.” This can be translated into “I see a woman in your life her name begins with “M.” Another example is “I see palm trees near the water.” If the subject lives in the north and appears affluent then there is a high probability of a recent or planned tropical vacation, and the reader will be judged correct, especially if there are no temporal limitations like past or future, or perhaps the image refers to a friend of the subjects.
Assumptions on the motivations and desires affecting most humans will also help cold readers in their predictions. Most people would agree therefore with the following line: “I see that you have financial issues that have to be dealt with.” Who doesn’t? The word “financial” could easily be replaced with “sexual” or “work” or “relationship” and still be valid for almost everyone.
Cold readers begin by taking in as much of the subject as they can, the clothes, manner of speech, apparent age, physical attributes, socioeconomic status, and mannerisms. Even someone’s eyes and hands can hold many clues. During this initial assessment the proficient cold reader quickly winnows all the possible classifications into those that are most likely. From these preliminary inferences alone accurate predictions can be made, but it is not yet the time for such precision. These initial guesses are tested with general statements that lightly touch possible problems, all along watching for reactions. This is the crucial step. The clients reactions guide his statements as he goes from the general to the more specific, they lead the way to more and more precise assessments of what is bothering the client, while allowing him to abandon dead ends or wrong guesses. As more accurate statements are made the client becomes increasingly convinced that the cold reader is divining the truth by some extra sensory means.
Feedback is the cold reader’s life blood, so if feedback is in short supply there are some effective methods for eliciting reactions, including ‘try-ons’ and muscle reading. Try-ons are subtle statements designed to prompt a reaction. They can include remarks like “I’m getting the feeling that ” or “I want to say that ” etc. They are not direct questions but they can be very effective in producing a response. Often the person does not even realize that he has answered these promptings. After a suitable delay the cold reader will then repeat what has just been learned to the amazement of his audience. Verbal feedback to try-ons and other ploys helps explain the phenomenal success of psychic hotlines, which is now almost a billion dollar a year industry. Visual feedback is not vital to experienced cold readers, verbal feedback alone often provides enough information so that the subjects are virtually open books. Deprived of feedback, the process of cold reading grinds to a halt.
Muscle reading is yet another tool for surreptitiously acquiring information. It involves direct contact with the person being read, either holding a hand or an arm or touching something the client is holding like a handkerchief. Contact like this permits the reading of involuntary muscle movements that can be used to gauge a clients reaction. These reactions inform the cold reader if he is hot or cold allowing him to go from general to more specific statements.
Cold readers also know that certain aspects of human psychology itself helps in their endeavors. One phenomenon, called subjective validation or selective memory, is especially important. It involves remembering significant events and forgetting the insignificant or unfavorable ones. Any assertion from the cold reader that is correct will tend to be remembered and the many that are off the mark are usually forgotten. The Forer Effect is related to selective memory but is even more apropos to the cold reading scenario. It states that in general, when people are given many general and specific claims about themselves, the inaccuracies are overlooked and the general statements are interpreted as accurate. Both these phenomenon give people a distorted memory of past events and prevents putting these events into their true context.
A classic example can be found in James Randi’s book Flim-Flam. Peter Hurkos amazed people with his ability to prognosticate. Intimate details were revealed, convincing people beyond question of his powers. Two such people were invited by Randi to watch a video tape of their sessions with Hurkos. It was “discovered by actual count that this so-called psychic had, on the average, been correct in one out of fourteen of his statements!….Selective thinking had led them to dismiss all the apparent misses and the obviously wrong guesses and remember only the ‘hits.’” So powerful is this phenomenon that even when people are confronted with this information many still believe that psychic powers alone produced the insights.
Knowledge of cold reading is essential to the skeptic. It lifts the veil of mystery from the alleged psychic and reveals the little man behind the curtain. Such knowledge focuses the harsh light of reality upon a vast array of seemingly paranormal phenomenon. It is a fundamental and powerful weapon in the skeptic’s arsenal. cold reading—from The Skeptics Dictionary
Cold reading refers to a set of techniques used by professional manipulators to get a subject to behave in a certain way or to think that the cold reader has some sort of special ability that allows him to “mysteriously” know things about the subject. Cold reading goes beyond the usual tools of manipulation: suggestion and flattery. In cold reading, salespersons, hypnotists, advertising pros, faith healers, con men and some therapists bank upon their subject’s inclination to find more meaning in a situation than there actually is. The desire to make sense out of our experience has led us to many wonderful discoveries, but it has also led some of us to many follies. The manipulator knows that his mark will be inclined to try to make sense out of whatever he is told, no matter how farfetched or improbable. He knows, too, that people are generally self-centered, that we tend to have unrealistic views of ourselves and that we will generally accept claims about us that reflect not how we are or even how we really think we are but how we wish we were or think we should be. He also knows that for every several claims he makes about you which you reject as being inaccurate, he will make one that meets with your approval; and he knows that you will remember the hits he makes and forget the misses.
Thus, a good manipulator can provide a reading of a total stranger, which will make the stranger feel that the manipulator possesses some special power. For example, Bertram Forer has never met you, the reader, yet he offers the following cold reading of you:
Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary and reserved. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. You pride yourself on being an independent thinker and do not accept others’ opinions without satisfactory proof. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety, and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. Disciplined and controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside.
Your sexual adjustment has presented some problems for you. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a strong need for other people to like you and for them to admire you.
Here’s another reading:
People close to you have been taking advantage of you. Your basic honesty has been getting in your way. Many opportunities that you have had offered to you in the past have had to be surrendered because you refuse to take advantage of others. You like to read books and articles to improve your mind. In fact, if you’re not already in some sort of personal service business, you should be. You have an infinite capacity for understanding people’s problems and, you can sympathize with them. But you are firm when confronted with obstinacy or outright stupidity. Law enforcement would be another field you understand. Your sense of justice is quite strong.
The last one was from astrologer Sidney Omarr. He’s never even met you and yet he knows so much about you! [Flim-Flam!, p. 61.] The first one was taken by Forer from a newsstand astrology book.
The selectivity of the human mind is always at work. We pick and choose what data we will remember and what we will give significance to. In part, we do so because of what we already believe or want to believe. In part, we do so in order to make sense out of what we are experiencing. We are not manipulated simply because we are gullible or suggestible, or just because the signs and symbols of the manipulator are vague or ambiguous. Even when the signs are clear and we are skeptical, we can still be manipulated. In fact, it may even be the case that particularly bright persons are more likely to be manipulated when the language is clear and they are thinking logically. To make the connections that the manipulator wants you to make, you must be thinking logically.
Not all cold readings are done by malicious manipulators. Some readings are done by astrologers, graphologists, tarot readers, and psychics who genuinely believe they have paranormal powers. They are as impressed by their correct predictions or “insights” as are their clients. We should remember, however, that just as scientists can be wrong in their predictions, so pseudoscientists and quacks can sometimes be right in theirs.
There seem to be three common factors in these kinds of readings. One factor involves fishing for details. The psychic says something at once vague and suggestive, e.g., “I’m getting a strong feeling about January here.” If the subject responds, positively or negatively, the psychic’s next move is to play off the response. eg., if the subject says, “I was born in January” or my mother died in January” then the psychic says something like “Yes, I can see that,” anything to reinforce the idea that the psychic was more precise that he or she really was. If the subject responds negatively, e.g., “I can’t think of anything particularly special about January,” the psychic might reply, “Yes, I see that you’ve suppressed a memory about it. You don’t want to be reminded of it. Something painful in January. Yes, I feel it. It’s in the lower back [fishing]…oh, now it’s in the heart [fishing]…umm, there seems to be a sharp pain in the head [fishing]…or the neck [fishing].” If the subject gives no response, the psychic can leave the area, having firmly implanted in everybody’s mind that the psychic really did ’see’ something but the subject’s suppression of the event hinders both the psychic and the subject from realizing the specifics of it. If the subject gives a positive response to any of the fishing expeditions, the psychic follows up with more of “I see that very clearly, now. Yes, the feeling in the heart is getting stronger.”
Fishing is a real art and I don’t doubt that it is better done by someone who genuinely believes they have psychic powers than by a fraud. The insincerity and forced quality of the con artist will be recognized by many intelligent people, but
even a very bright person can be taken in by a sincere but deluded psychic.
Another characteristic of these readings is that all of the initial claims are put in either vague statement form (“I’m getting a warm feeling in the crotch area”) or in the form of a question (“I sense that you have strong feelings about someone in this room. Am I right?”) Most of the specific claims are provided by the subject himself.
Finally, those occasions where the psychic has guessed wrongly about the subject will be forgotten by the subject and the audience. What will be remembered are the seeming hits, giving the overall impression of “wow, how else could she have known all this stuff unless she is psychic.” This same phenomenon of suppression of contrary evidence and selective thinking is so predominant in every form of psychic demonstration that it seems to be related to the old psychological principle: a man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.
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Does James Van Praagh talk to the Dead? Nope! Fraud! – Part 2
Those of you who saw 20/20 Friday night saw James Van Praagh busted for cheating and caught in a bald-faced lie. Here is my report, lifted from two sections from my next essay in Skeptic magazine, entitled “TALKING TWADDLE WITH THE DEAD.”
There is additional information I got from a producer at NBC’s THE OTHER SIDE, of how Van Praagh cheated on that show as well. It follows some biographical material on Van Praagh.
Michael Shermer
How to Talk to the Dead
Watching James Van Praagh work a crowd or do a one-on-one reading is an educational experience in human psychology. Make no mistake about it, this is one clever man. We skeptics may see him as morally reprehensible at best, but we should not underestimate his talents at understanding what touches off human emotions. He employs three basic techniques to “talk” to the dead:
1. Cold Reading. Most of what Van Praagh does is what is known in the mentalism trade as cold reading, where you literally “read” someone “cold,”–knowing nothing about them. He asks lots of questions and makes numerous statements, some general and some specific, and sees what sticks.
Most of the time he is wrong. His subjects visibly nod their heads “no.” But, as noted above, he only needs an occasional hit to convince his clientele he is genuine. Sometimes he gets lucky, and as mentalists note, you always take credit for lucky hits.
2. Warm Reading. This is utilizing known principles of psychology that apply to nearly everyone. For example, most grieving women will wear a piece of jewelry that has a connection to their loved one. Katie Curic on The Today Show, for example, after her husband died wore his ring on a necklace when she returned to the show. Van Praagh knows this about mourning people and will say something like “do you have a ring or a piece of jewelry on you, please?” His subject cannot believe her ears and nods enthusiastically in the affirmative.
He says “thank you,” and moves on like he just divined this from heaven. Most people also keep a photograph of their loved one either on them or near their bed, and Van Praagh will take credit for this specific hit that actually applies to most people. He is clever at determining the cause of death by focusing either on the chest or head areas, and then exploring whether it was a slow or sudden end.
Like a computer flow chart, he moves through the possibilities, then fills in the blanks. “I’m feeling a pain in the chest.” If he gets a positive nod, he continues. “Did he have cancer, please? Because I’m seeing a slow death here.” If he gets the nod, he takes the hit. If the subject hesitates at all, he will quickly shift to heart attack. If it is the head, he goes for stroke or head injury from an automobile accident or fall.
Statistically speaking there are only half a dozen ways 90% of us die, so with just a little probing, and the verbal and nonverbal cues of his subject, he can appear to get far more hits here than he is really getting.
3. Hot Reading. Mentalist Max Maven clarified for me that some mentalists and psychics also do “hot” readings, where they obtain information on a subject ahead of time. I do not know if Van Praagh uses private detectives to get information on people, but I have discovered from numerous television producers who were less than impressed by the medium, that Van Praagh consciously and deliberately pumps them for information about his subjects ahead of time, then uses that information to deceive the viewing public that he got it from the spirit world.
Leah Haines, for example, a producer and researcher for NBC’s The Other Side, explained to me how Van Praagh used her during his numerous appearances on the show in 1994 (in an interview on April 3, 1998):
I can’t say I think James Van Praagh is a total fraud, because he came up with things I hadn’t told him, but there were moments on the show when he appeared to coming up with fresh information that he got from myself and other researchers.
For example, I recall him asking about the profession of the deceased loved one of one of our guests, and I told him he was a fireman. Then, when the show began, he said something to the effect, “I see a uniform. Was he a policeman or fireman please?” Everyone was stunned at his psychic powers, but he got that directly from me.
Haines also noted that any notion of Van Praagh not doing it for the money were quickly erased as his fame grew. “We had him on the show a bunch of times that first year. At the beginning he would drive himself to the studio and we just paid him a token fee like all the other guests. But in time he wanted us to send over a limo and he kept cranking up his appearance fee. It really irked us because we knew that we were the ones who made him.”
Caught Cheating
Even for seasoned observers it is remarkable how Van Praagh appears to get hits, even when he doesn’t. When we were filming the 20/20 piece, I was told that he had not done all that well the night before, but that he got a couple of startling hits–including the name of a woman’s family dog. But when we reviewed the videotape, here is what actually happened. Van Praagh was bombing in his reading of a gentleman named Peter, who was poker-faced and obviously skeptical (without feedback Van Praagh’s hit rate drops by half).
After dozens of misses, Van Praagh queried, “Who is Charlie?” Peter sat there dumbfounded, unable to connect to anyone named Charlie, when suddenly the woman sitting next to Peter (and a complete stranger), blurted out “Charlie was our family dog.” Van Praagh seized the moment and proclaimed that he could see Charlie and Dad taking walks in heaven together.
The highlight of the 20/20 piece, however, was the blatant exposure of Van Praagh cheating, and then caught in a bald-faced lie. On a break, with the video camera rolling, he turned to a woman named Mary Jo and asked: “Did your mother pass on?” Mary Jo nodded in the negative and said “Grandmother.” A full 54 minutes later Van Praagh turned to her and said: “I want to tell you, there is a lady sitting behind you. She feels like a grandmother to me.
He was caught cheating red-handed but when confronted by the 20/20 correspondent Bill Ritter, he lied, insisting that he got the grandmother without cheating. When they showed him the video clip, he proclaimed: “I don’t cheat. I don’t have to prove…I don’t cheat. I don’t cheat. I mean, come on.” As if repeating it enough times would make it go away.
Yet, even after we busted Van Praagh for both cheating and lying, Barbara Walters concluded in the wrap-up discussion:
I was skeptical. I still am But I met James Van Praagh. He didn’t expect to meet me. He knew that my father’s name was Lew–Lewis he said and he knew that my father had a glass eye. People don’t know that.
Ritter, doing his homework on this piece to the bitter end, replied:
You told me the story yesterday and I told you I would look and see what I could find out. Within a few minutes I found out that your father’ name wasn’t Lew and that he was very well known in show business. And this morning I was looking in a book and found a passage that says he was blind in one eye — accidental — and he had a glass eye. If I found that out, then he could have.
While Walters flustered in frustration, seemingly groping for some vestige of hope, Hugh Downs declared without qualification: “I don’t believe him.”
Where have we heard all this before? A hundred years ago, when mediums, seances, and spiritualism were all the rage in England and America, Thomas Henry Huxley concluded, as only he could in his biting wit, that as nonsensical as it was, spiritual manifestations might at least reduce suicides: “Better live a crossing-sweeper than die and be made to talk twaddle by a ‘medium’ hired at a guinea a seance.”
Strange that this phenomenon would repeat a century later. Perhaps Marx was right when he wrote in the Eighteenth Brumaire that “Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historical facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He has forgotten to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.” In this case, death is the tragedy, Van Praagh is the farce.
