According to climate change experts at the Met office, 2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998. Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year.
The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Nino, greenhouse gas, concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous 7 years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.
The Met Office forecast for 2007 shows two significant findings:
Firstly, the global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C. And there is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long-term average).
The potential for a global record breaking 2007 arises partly from a moderate strength El Nino already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007.
The lag between El Nino and the full global surface temperature response means that the warming effect of El Nino is extended and therefore has a greater influence on the global temperatures during the year.
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting, explaining the predictions, said… “This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world. Our work in the climate change consultancy team applies Met Office research to help businesses mitigate against risk and adapt at a strategic level for success in the new environment.”
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